Two steps forward, One step back?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (26th April 2015)

Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th April 2015 

Tomorrow sees the latest in monthly series of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion polls. This seems, to a certain degree to reverse the trends evident in the last such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. Both of the two government parties lose ground in this poll, while Sinn Féin more than regains the ground that party lost in the March edition of this poll. This Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Independents and Others 26% (down 2%), Fine Gael 25% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 22% (up 5%), Labour Party 8% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 31, Labour Party…

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